Xbox One outsold PlayStation 4 last month, according to analyst estimate (update)

Update: See official sales results for September from the NPD. PS4 ended up outselling Xbox One.

Give gamers a good deal, and they might show up to buy your new console. That’s what Microsoft is learning.

The Xbox One sold better than the PlayStation 4 in September, according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. He is estimating that Microsoft sold 325,000 new Xbox Ones at U.S. retailers last month while Sony sold 250,000 PS4s. This is notable because Sony’s system has sold better than Microsoft’s in nearly every month since each gaming device launched in November. September is also when Activision launched its blockbuster sci-fi shooter Destiny, which Sony helped market as a PS4 game even though it is also available on Xbox One and the older systems. Both corporations are locked in a battle in the console-gaming sector, which is worth billions of dollars in the U.S. alone.

“We expect Xbox One sales to exceed those of the PS4 for only the second month since launch,” Pachter said in a note to investors.

These Wedbush numbers are just a prediction, and we should learn if they are accurate this Thursday when industry-tracking firm The NPD Group reveals its sales data for the month of September.

If they do hold out, it’s pretty clear how Xbox One bested the PS4 despite Sony’s momentum and Destiny: Microsoft made an appeal to gamers’ wallets.

“From Sept. 7 through [Sept.] 13, Microsoft offered a free game with the purchase of a new Xbox One at participating retailers,” said Pachter.

That is the same week that Destiny launched, and it also closely coincided with the debut of a $400 Xbox One bundle that comes with the football sim Madden NFL 15. So during that week, savvy gamers could get a new Xbox One and two highly anticipated games for $400. Meanwhile, to get the PS4 bundled with Destiny, the same customer would need to spend $450.

“I kind of think that free Destiny [on Xbox One] was better than [paying] for Destiny on PS4,” Pacther told GamesBeat. He also noted the appeal of the Madden bundle. “That’s pretty compelling.”