Half of U.S. consumers skipping Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the entire manufactured shopping orgy

It could really be a black Friday this year for online retailers. Or at least moderately grey.

According to a 4,600-person survey by Visa, 49 percent of us are not impressed with the over-commercialization of the Thanksgiving weekend and don’t plan to shop on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Thanksgiving, or any of the other shopping days this weekend.

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And for those 55 years old and above, that number hits almost 70 percent.

Last year, a record 247 million Americans visited stores on the Black Friday weekend, spending an average of $423 each and shoveling a massive $60 billion into the eager cash registers of the nations retailers. And close to half of that amount — over 40 percent — was spent online.

Visa’s survey results means that this year either people will revolt against the over-commercialization of the holidays, or that many of us have very noble intentions but won’t follow through on them.

Just 10 percent of people plan to shop on Thanksgiving, Visa says, while 62 percent of people who said they would not shop on the holiday also added that they were philosophically opposed to shopping on Thanksgiving. A larger percentage of Americans, 37 percent, said they will shop on Black Friday, while 34 percent plan to shop on Cyber Monday.

The question is, will people do what they say they’re going to do?

Adobe, which provides tools that see 72 percent of all the cash flowing into the top 500 online retail sites in the U.S., sees a vastly different picture. And based on an analysis of 450 billion retail visits over the past seven years, Adobe says we’re going to see record sales this holiday season: $1.1 billion on Thanksgiving, $1.6 billion on Black Friday, and $2.3 billion on Cyber Monday.

And 30 percent of people plan to increase their online shopping this year, Adobe says.

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Which begs the question: Will we really not shop on the weekend, or do we just want to think of ourselves as people who, on Thanksgiving, are actually giving thanks, rather than reaching out for an ever-bigger piece of the consumer pie that retailers are dangling in front of our faces.

Time will tell.