Hot tip: Spend less time on Thanksgiving eating turkey, and more time getting the best online discounts of the year

As far as the oldest Thanksgiving tradition goes, we already know what will happen to the turkey.

But Adobe and IBM are each releasing predictions about what will happen for the newest holiday tradition — online shopping.

“People who have been [influenced] by traditional retailers think Black Friday and Cyber Monday have the lowest discounts,” Adobe principal analyst Tamara Gaffney told VentureBeat. And, she said, they sometimes think discounts keep dropping in the days leading up to Christmas.

Not so, she pointed out, based on the data from Adobe’s Marketing Cloud.

“Prices start dropping an average of 17 percent about now,” she said, hitting about 21 percent the Monday of Thanksgiving week.

And here’s a big tip: The year’s lowest discount, an average of 24 percent, hits on Thanksgiving.

“It’s the new diet,” she suggested. “Don’t spend so much time eating” — spend more time saving.

Another Adobe tip: Products are twice as likely to go out of stock by Black Friday as in the days leading up. And, by Cyber Monday, five times as likely.

For the parents among you, Adobe has sniffed out trends indicating that Lego’s Guardians of the Galaxy and movie dolls from the film “Frozen” will be big hits for this holiday season.

Among electronics, social signals point to 4K TV sets from Sony and Samsung as winners. Other products with buckets of buzz: Fitbit, Roku, the Call of Duty videogame, PS4 (over Xbox One), and Nintendo DS.

Half of all traffic

Adobe says it covers nearly three-quarters of the total dollars spent online, and IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark covers much of the rest.

Both companies’ data shows that the Thanksgiving weekend keeps growing in shopping importance. While Cyber Monday was originally created to boost online sales, Adobe says that this year’s Black Friday will be the fastest-growing online sales day of the year, with 28 percent year-over-year growth and an estimated $2.48 billion in sales.

Cyber Monday will keep the crown this year for online shopping, with a projected $2.6 billion in sales.

But look out!

Next year, Adobe says, Black Friday will become the biggest online shopping day. IBM countered: Black Friday also remains the busiest day for in-store shopping.

And, when all those turkey-stuffed meal attendees are tryptophan-ing on the couch, at least some of them will be using their phones and tablets for shopping.

Thanksgiving this year will also be the “most mobile shopping day of the year,” according to Adobe.

The average online order size for those sales, per IBM: $123.28 for four items.

So, eat up this year and enjoy a day that was once all about eating, watching football, arguing politics with an uncle, and sleeping.

Because, at the rate online shopping is taking over the holiday, the turkey is becoming a bit player, so to speak.