How PlayStation VR could ignite the mainstream virtual reality market

“I think ‘consumer VR’ is an apt description,” Pachter told GamesBeat. “PSVR is likely to perform better than the other entries because it doesn’t require any ‘special’ hardware. At least 49 million gamers can buy it because they already have a PS4, compared to only a handful of gamers — maybe 10 million, probably far fewer — who already have a sufficiently powerful PC to power Oculus or Vive. In addition, the PSVR price point is a lot lower than the others, making it more affordable as a holiday gift for a PS4 owner — still very expensive but cheaper than the other [options].”

PlayStation VR’s potential

While they are hesitant to promise big results for PSVR, the analysts do admit that the peripheral could catch on in a big way. If that happens, the potential is sky-high.

“PSVR should see rapid adoption with the size of the PS4 installed base as the limiting factor,” said Merel. “If the 49 million-plus PS4 installed base has a 25-percent adoption rate, that’s a ceiling of 10-plus million users. If it sees an even stronger 50-percent adoption rate, that’s 20-plus million users.”

SuperData’s van Dreunen says that the PSVR’s fate through the holidays will depend on its reception this month. The initial shipments for PSVR have sold out, so plenty of consumers are about to flood social media and forums with their opinions, and that word of mouth will matter.

“The initial popularity of the VR experiences that are currently available will set the tone for the holiday season,” said van Dreunen. “If that resembles what we saw during the introduction of the Wii, for instance, we can expect console VR to quickly blow past its PC counterparts.”

What it means for Sony

PSVR is a major initiative for Sony Interactive Entertainment, but the company has more than just a headset in the works. Next month, the publisher will also release the PlayStation 4 Pro, a $400 4K-capable version of its console. It’s possible to see a future where PSVR doesn’t take off, and Sony considers shedding that business.

But van Dreunen is confident that Sony can handle some slow growth for console VR.

“As a consumer electronics company, Sony is no stranger to the initial slow adoption rate of new hardware and has experience with the necessary rollout strategies,” he said. “With an install base of around 49 million PS4s worldwide, it will look to quickly establish that precarious balance between consumer demand and third-party support. Its games division has been a keystone in the Sony empire, so the company will no doubt be subsidizing both sides of the market to drive long-term revenues.”

On top of that, it’s unlikely that Sony will lose a lot of money even if PSVR doesn’t sell well beyond its launch.

“I am sure Sony is profitable on PSVR,” said Pachter. “So I think it can afford a slow launch. I really see few obstacles other than content, which will depend mostly on third-party development. If the installed base grows quickly, developers will chase it.”

Sony’s risks

Sony seems like it could sweep in and take over the spotlight, but it will also have to avoid repeating some mistakes of similarly flashy technologies from the past, according to Pachter.

“The biggest risk I see is that VR in general may be perceived as a fad,” said Pachter. “The worst thing that could happen is that VR will be like Kinect, interesting at the outset but never fully embraced by users. My view is that VR is pretty versatile for education, healthcare, and commerce in addition to gaming, so I expect it to succeed.”

Van Dreunen echoed that sentiment.

“The biggest threat to the PSVR is the lethal combination of a lack of consumer interest and the absence of third-party support,” he said. “PC and mobile-based VR also live in this universe — even if these three audiences don’t overlap all that much.”

Finally, Sony could potentially trip itself up.

“The timing of PS4 Pro may limit interest in PSVR to people who intend to upgrade to the more powerful console,” said Pacther. “I can envision that many PS4 owners will be paralyzed for some time as they try to determine if they need a PS4 Pro in order to effectively use PSVR.”

But while the risks are real — as they are for any new product — faith in Sony is strong, and PSVR could reach an audience that PC-based VR headsets cannot. And that means it could truly kick off the virtual reality revolution that changes the way people interact with computers forever.