Nintendo Switch projected to easily outsell the Wii U

Nintendo looks like it might avoid another console flop.

Market research and consulting firm DFC forecasts that Nintendo’s upcoming Switch system will reach 40 million consoles sold by 2020. That’s almost three times what its predecessor, the Wii U, sold in its first three years. Lifetime sales for the Wii U, which came out in 2012, sit at a paltry 13.36 million. If DFC’s forecast plays out, Nintendo will have a hit on its hands.

The Nintendo Switch is a home console that turns into a portable device, enabling gamers to play on the go or on the TV. It comes out on March 3 for $300.

That 40 million number would still lag behind this generation’s most popular console, the PlayStation 4, which hit 50 million consoles sold shortly after three years on the market. But it would put the Switch ahead of Microsoft’s Xbox One, which sold 26 million machines in its first three years. After the disappointing Wii U, being second place would be a big win for Nintendo.

“The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market,” said DFC analyst David Cole in a press release sent to GamesBeat. “However, given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products, we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.”

So DFC expects the Switch to be a hit, if not an astronomical one. It seems unlikely that the console will outperform the Wii, which had lifetime sales of over 101 million.