SuperData: Star Wars: Battlefront ‘won’t reverse’ EA’s luck with shooters

Electronic Arts is one of the most successful publishers on Xbox One and PlayStation 4, but it has had a shaky history with the crucial (and lucrative) shooter genre. And now, even as it prepares to use The Force to turn that around, that trend will likely continue.

Star Wars: Battlefront is one of the most anticipated games of the fall, and it also seems like it could help EA finally have something on par with Call of Duty on the years when it doesn’t have a Battlefield game. But research firm SuperData predicts that even if the multiplayer-focused Star Wars shooter from developer DICE sells more than 10 million copies across PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and PC, it’s not something that will put EA shooters on a path to repeated success. That’s because the publisher likely has to pay a hefty fee to use this Disney-owned license and because the Battlefield franchise, according to SuperData, is on the decline.

SuperData estimates that Disney will likely get a royalty payment of well more than $100 million if Battlefront sells more than 10 million copies. While EA, Disney, and LucasArts have not shared the details of the deal, SuperData came up with that estimation based on similar agreements.

“We assume a minimum guarantee of $12 million and a royalty payout structure between 10 percent and 15 percent,” reads the SuperData report. “[That values] the total deal at around $110 million for Disney at the high end.”

In that scenario, and after factoring in costs, EA would still stand to take home more than $300 million in earnings from Battlefront. That’s a huge win — but it’s likely not as large a figure as the average Call of Duty makes. And it’s not as big as it would’ve been had EA made games like the Medal of Honor reboot work.

And while SuperData could be completely wrong and EA may not have to pay a huge royalty to Disney, it is definitely giving the company a significant amount of cash to use the Star Wars brand. And slicing off a chunk of its revenues to give to another company has to hurt a bit.

At the same time, the Battlefield franchise has potentially started to peter out.

“With 7 million copies sold across all platforms, including 1.7 million via full game download on console, Battlefield 4 proved successful, though it also heralded the decline of the franchise,” reads the SuperData post. “Even as the console user base expands, sales of each new addition to the franchise has seen faster post-launch-month drops and digital earnings keep dropping faster.”

This is definitely true of the Visceral-developed Battlefield: Hardline, which had a big launch but didn’t have much staying power. But it’s also true, as SuperData points out, of Battlefield 4. That game had a huge number of bugs and connectivity problems that has seemingly damaged the reputation of the series. While DICE was eventually able to get it all working — and we’ll see how its Battlefront game does — we won’t know if Battlefield is on a permanent decline until the next entry from the main studio.

Although, it’s also possible to look at those numbers as maybe something of a speedbumb. Battlefield 4 maybe didn’t sell as well as its predecessor over time, but fans might forget about all of that if Battlefield 5 comes out with no issues.

And you can look at Hardline’s numbers in another light. It was a new game from another studio that was built largely on top of what DICE did in 4. It was almost like a downloadable-content release, and that would make it one of the most successful DLC launches ever.

So it’s not clear that SuperData’s concerns are fully founded, but what is clear, however, is that EA still has a lot to do to match Activision’s Call of Duty in the shooter space.