The Top Bombs of The Current Generation: Review Scores vs. Sales Data

Editor's note: Andrew whips out the TI-86 graphing calculator again and turns its withering, number-crunching gaze on the biggest sales disappointments of this console generation. Armchair analysts will find some pretty fascinating stuff in here, especially in the genre breakdowns after the jump. -Demian

 

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Concluding my series of articles on top bombs for the current generation of consoles, I will now round up all the titles to compare the biggest bombs from this generation. Using the AURA index ("Achieved Under Review Aggregate", click here for more info on this scoring system), I have balanced scores and sales data to look at the biggest commercial bombs that were critical hits.

A brief introduction, if you haven't seen my earlier articles. The better the review score, the higher the AURA score. The lower the sales as a ratio to a console's install base, the higher the AURA score. An example of how it works: When comparing two games with equal sales, the game with the higher review score will be the bigger bomb. Likewise with sales: When comparing two games with an equal review scores, the lower-selling as a factor of console install base will be the bigger bomb. And a final clarification, if a game has a higher review aggregate, it can sell more copies while still remaining a bomb, under the assumption that games with higher scores will sell more. The rule: the larger the AURA score, the larger the bomb.

Follow the links to see the previous lists featuring console-specific bombs: Top Ten Wii Bombs, Top Ten Xbox 360 Bombs, Top Ten PS3 Bombs.

The following list was created using data from gamerankings.com and vgchartz.com. The 228 games across all platforms that scored an 80 or above on gamerankings.com (an arbitrary line that denotes "consensus critical hit") were scored using the AURA system. And for the sake of continuity, I have two lists, one with sports titles, one without.

TOP 25 CURRENT CONSOLE GENERATION CRITICAL HITS/RETAIL BOMBS
25. MLB Power Pros – Wii – .69
24. Guitar Hero: Metallica – Wii – .71
23. Pinball Hall of Fame – The Williams Collection – Wii – .75
22. Virtua Fighter 5 Online – Xbox 360 – .82
21. Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection – Xbox 360 – .83
20. Okami – Wii – .87
19. Tales of Vesperia – Xbox 360 – .87
18. Eternal Sonata – PS3 – .98
17. Punch Out!! – Wii – 1.00
16. Viva Pinata: Trouble in Paradise – Xbox 360 – 1.18
15. NHL 2K7 – Xbox 360 – 1.24
14. Bully: Scholarship Edition – Wii – 1.25
13. The House of the Dead: Overkill – Wii – 1.26
12. The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena – Xbox 360 – 1.26
11. The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena – PS3 – 1.44
10. Zack & Wiki Quest for Barbaros' Treasure – Wii – 1.46
9. Mad World – Wii – 1.47
8. FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage – Xbox 360 – 1.60
7. Geometry Wars: Galaxies – Wii – 1.70
6. Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 – Wii – 1.81
5. MLB Power Pros 2008 – Wii – 1.88
4. Rune Factory Frontier – Wii – 3.91
3. Boom Blox Bash Party – Wii – 4.38
2. Klonoa – Wii – 5.35
1. Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 – Wii – 8.75

And here is the alternate list, excluding sports titles, a particular niche unto itself.

TOP 25 CURRENT CONSOLE GENERATION CRITICAL HITS/RETAIL BOMBS
25. Unreal Tournament 3 – Xbox 360 – .51
24. Pure – Xbox 360 – .56
23. Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice – PS3 – .57
22. Trauma Center: Second Opinion – Wii – .60
21. No More Heroes – Wii – .65
20. Guitar Hero: Metallica – Wii – .71
19. Pinball Hall of Fame – The Williams Collection – Wii – .75
18. Virtua Fighter 5 Online – Xbox 360 – .82
17. Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection – Xbox 360 – .83
16. Okami – Wii – .87
15. Tales of Vesperia – Xbox 360 – .87
14. Eternal Sonata – PS3 – .98
13. Punch Out!! – Wii – 1.00
12. Viva Pinata: Trouble in Paradise – Xbox 360 – 1.18
11. Bully: Scholarship Edition – Wii – 1.25
10. The House of the Dead: Overkill – Wii – 1.26
9. The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena – Xbox 360 – 1.26
8. The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena – PS3 – 1.44
7. Zack & Wiki Quest for Barbaros' Treasure – Wii – 1.46
6. Mad World – Wii – 1.47
5. FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage – Xbox 360 – 1.60
4. Geometry Wars: Galaxies – Wii – 1.70
3. Rune Factory Frontier – Wii – 3.91
2. Boom Blox Bash Party – Wii – 4.38
1. Klonoa – Wii – 5.35

The Great White Bomb

It is obvious from the list that a smaller portion of the Wii install base are buying good games on the Wii. In fact, of the 38 games that scored better than an 80 on gamerankings.com, 16 were on the first list, while 14 were on the alternative list, for a total of 18 combined, with nine of the top 10 appearing on the console. That's nearly half the "critical hit" games of the Wii, confirming what was suspected: good games are not succeeding on the console. [Editor's note: That last line might be a little misleading. It's probably more accurate to say that good games are not selling on the Wii to the same extent, relative to install base, as they are on Xbox 360 and PS3. -Demian]

You will notice that remakes, original titles, ports, casual games, hardcore games, and classic franchises are all included on the list, restricting the "bomb" title to no specific type of game.

Xbox 360 Bombs vs. PS3 Bombs

While both consoles had games on the list, only three on the alternative list were PS3 titles, an exclusive (Disgaea 3), a timed exclusive for the Xbox 360 (Eternal Sonata), and a multiplatform title, half of which is considered a remake (Chronicles of Riddick).

As for the Xbox 360, FlatOut was the only non-Wii game in the Top Ten. Five Xbox 360 versions of multiplatform titles were on the list, with only Chronicles of Riddick's PS3 version also making the list. Two titles to make the list were Xbox 360 exclusives.

What does this mean? I will go as far to say that a greater percentage of the PS3 install base are buying the good games. However, due to a greater install base, Xbox 360 good games outsell PS3 good games, an important fact, when the games cost the same on both systems. Despite greater attach rates for good games, there are better absolute sales figures on the Xbox 360.

Beyond the Bombs

While the focus of this and the preceding articles was to look at critical hits/retail bombs, plenty of data was amassed that was irrelevant to this end. However, that data does provide interesting insights into the performance of particular styles of games across the three platforms, based on multiplatform titles. I've divided the multiplatform games into 8 categories: FPS, Third Person Adventure/Action, Music, Sports, Racing, RPG, Fighting, and Other.

FPS

Of the FPS multiplatform titles studied Call of Duty 4, CoD: World at War, Far Cry 2, Condemned 2, The Darkness, Rainbow Six Vegas, and Rainbow Six Vegas 2 all performed nearly identical on all platforms (with the expception of the Wii version of CoD WaW scoring a .20 vs. the Xbox 360's and PS3's .03). Discrepancies were found with Battlefield: Bad Company, BioShock, Call of Duty 3, The Orange Box, Unreal Tournament 3, Chronicles of Riddick and GRAW 2. In all instances, the Xbox 360 version fared better, with the exception of Unreal Tournament 3 (.23 vs. .51). The largest discrepancies were Bioshock (Xbox 360's .13 vs. the PS3's .45) and The Orange Box (Xbox 360's .25 vs. PS3's .32)

In short, FPSs perform similarly on both consoles, with a slight advantage to the Xbox 360.

Third Person Adventure/Action

This category is a loose group of games, combined for the sake of convenience. Here, scores were similar, although when there was a discrepancy, the PS3 usually came out better. Such was the case for Dead Space (PS3's .23 vs. Xbox 360's .29), Devil May Cry 4 (PS3's .12 vs. Xbox 360's .17) and Prince of Persia (PS3's .17 vs. Xbox 360's .28). Discrepancies of .02 or smaller were seen with GTA 4, Lego Star Wars, and Resident Evil 5, where the PS3 came out slightly ahead in all cases. The only game to buck this trend was Saints Row 2, where the Xbox 360 version (.16) outdid the PS3 version (.20).

The largest discrepancy of all was with Bully: SE. The Xbox 360 version (.30) performed well, while the Wii version (1.25) can be considered a bomb.

Music

Guitar Hero 3 and Guitar Hero World Tour had nearly identical scores across all three platforms. The Metallica expansion fared less well, doing best on Xbox 360, then PS3, then Wii.

As for the Rock Band Franchise, there is an interesting turn of events. While Rock Band did the best on the Xbox 360 by a modest margin (.07 vs the Wii and PS3's .12), the PS3 version of Rock Band 2 did slightly better than the Xbox 360 version (.09 vs. .10)

Sports

In nearly all instances, the PS3 outperformed the Xbox 360 in terms of sports game sales as a ratio to the install base. This was especially prominent in college sports, soccer, hockey, and golf. Identical or near identical scores were seen with Fight Night Round 3, the Madden Series (Xbox 360 did better with 08 while PS3 did better with 09), the NBA 2k series. The Wii, where it had a competing entry, did poorly in comparison with the exception of Tiger Woods 09, which actually did better than both Xbox 360 and PS3. The only game that scored better on the AURA index on the Xbox 360 was Skate 2.

Racing

All multiplatform racing titles did better on the PS3 except for Dirt, which fared best on the Xbox 360. These titles include: Burnout Paradise (which is also available for download, figures not taken into account for the AURA scores), Grid, Midnight Club: Los Angeles, and Pure. Where the scores differed, they differed significantly.

I'm at a lost to explain this, other than Xbox 360 has its flagship racing titles (Forza and Project Gotham) on the market, while PS3 owners are waiting for Gran Turismo 5. I can also offer the explanation that since MotorStorm is out, it makes sense that Dirt would fare poorly on the system. To counter this argument, Pure did do better on the PS3, if only by a slim margin.

RPG

Only two mulitplatform titles that were included in this study were RPGs, both developed by Bethesda. Oblivion did better on the Xbox 360, but only slightly, surprising given how far in advance it came out (.08 vs. .12). This is much closer than other timed exclusives, BioShock in particular. Fallout 3 performed similarly on both consoles.

Fighting

Four fighting titles came out on both platforms. The PS3 versions had lower AURA scores in all instances, showing that a higher percentage of the install base is buying this type of game than on the Xbox 360. These were Soul Calibur 4 (.12 vs. .19), Street Fighter 4 (.12 vs. 23), Virtua Fighter 5 (Online for the Xbox 360) (.25 vs. .82), and UFC 2009 (.34 vs. 51). Up to this point we have seen better performance of PS3 titles over Xbox 360 titles. Despite this, Xbox 360 titles sell more, if to a smaller percentage of the audience. Virtua Fighter 5 for the PS3, without the online component actually sold 90k copies more than teh Xbox 360 version. This is a rariety found in the data.

Other

Finally, only two games that couldn't be classified elsewhere were released and scored above 80 on gamerankings.com. Civilization Revolution fared slightly better on the PS3 (.28 vs. .34) while Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection did much better on the PS3 (.40 vs. .83). This could point to the fact that PS3 owners tend to be more "retro" centric. Alternatively, it could point towards differences in online offerings.

Conclusions

The data has offered a variety of trends from which we can draw conclusions. First, the Wii has fewer games that have garnered critical acclaim. Despite this, these games are faring the worse in terms of the install base.

PS3 games tend to do better than Xbox 360 titles when sales are viewed as a percentage of install base. The only category in which this trend is reversed is with FPS games. Sports games do slightly better on PS3, while racing and fighting games do much better on the PS3.

With these trends we can identify the character and nature of the customer base for each console. We can also point to the fact that the PS3 has a narrower selection of games that have been praised in the enthusiast press. This may have concentrated sales to a smaller selection of titles, thus driving AURA scores down, while Xbox 360 owners have more games to select from when making a purchase decision.

While the scores were lower for the PS3, this only means that they "do pretty good for what they have." Simply as a function of install base, the Xbox 360 version of games will out-sell PS3 games, with rare exceptions. And where games are priced similarly, Xbox 360 titles stand to bring in more revenues, and thus more profit.

As a basis for development and publishing decisions, the AURA system would fare poorly. But as a part of a conversation about those classics that we love and hated to see bomb at retail, the AURA system has provided insights.

Especially for us poor Wii owners.