Missing analyst targets, Zynga reports break-even Q4 and slight loss for 2014

Zynga isn’t quite delighting investors yet. The social gaming company reported earnings that matched expectations but fell short on bookings targets.

The San Francisco-based Zynga reported fourth quarter bookings of $182.4 million, up 4 percent from the prior quarter, but short of the $201 million that analysts had expected. The company also announced that it is closing its game development studio in China because the division’s games fell short.

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Zynga also reported adjusted earnings before income taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $9.4 million, up from $2.2 million in the prior quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, Zynga reported breakeven results for the quarter and a loss of 4 cents a share for the year. Wall Street isn’t happy, and Zynga’s stock price is down 10 percent in after-hours trading, after a 5 percent drop before the earnings came out.

On the bright side, Zynga chief executive Don Mattrick can claim progress toward his goals of turning Zynga into a real player in mobile gaming. The company saw record growth in mobile, with both mobile bookings and mobile audience numbers up significantly from a year ago.

Zynga also said its pipeline of games in development is looking better. Zynga expects to launch six to 10 games in 2015, depending on how good each is as it nears the finish line. Three of the new titles will be a “match 3” version of FarmVille, an action-strategy title dubbed Dawn of Titans from Zynga’s NaturalMotion division, and the action-strategy game Empires & Allies, led by seasoned game developer Mark Skaggs (who headed FarmVille as well as the old Command & Conquer franchise while he was at EA).

“2014 was a year of progress for Zynga — we came together as one team and applied more discipline and rigor to our business,” said Mattrick in a statement.

He said that in the fourth quarter, Zynga increased mobile bookings to 60 percent of our total bookings mix, expanded its mobile audience with monthly mobile consumers up 87 percent year over year, and it grew the core franchise bookings by 35 percent year over year.

“In 2015, we will focus on three priorities: driving mobile growth, launching more products in more evergreen categories and building on our social legacy,” he said.

By the end of 2015, Mattrick wants Zynga to have 75 percent of its fourth quarter bookings coming from mobile. The company still has a sizable war chest with $1.1 billion in cash.

Here’s Zynga’s own metrics and forecast for Q1 below:

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Average daily bookings per average DAU (ABPU) increased from $0.060 in the fourth quarter of 2013 to $0.079 in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 31% year over year. On a consecutive quarter basis, ABPU was up 8% from $0.073 in the third quarter of 2014.

Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 1.1 million, compared to 1.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. On a consecutive quarter basis, MUPs were down 16% from 1.3 million in the third quarter of 2014.
Daily active users (DAUs) in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 25 million, compared to 27 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. On a consecutive quarter basis, DAUs were down 4% from 26 million in the third quarter of 2014. Web DAUs and Mobile DAUs were 6 million and 19 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, respectively.

Monthly active users (MAUs) in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 108 million, compared to 112 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. On a consecutive quarter basis, MAUs were down 3% from 112 million in the third quarter of 2014. Web MAUs and Mobile MAUs were 28 million and 80 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, respectively.

Monthly unique users (MUUs) in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 71 million, compared to 80 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. On a consecutive quarter basis, MUUs were down 7% from 77 million in the third quarter of 2014.

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For the first quarter, revenue is projected to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million.
Net loss is projected to be in the range of $60 million to $52 million.
Net loss per share is projected to be in the range of $0.07 and $0.06, based on a share count projected to be approximately 896 million shares.
Bookings are projected to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million.
Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of ($25) million to ($15) million.
Non-GAAP net loss per share is projected to be in the range of ($0.03) to ($0.02), based on a share count projected to be approximately 896 million shares.